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☆ ‘Super El Niño’ is here, but will it last? What’s in store for the coming months
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Mary Gilbert | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —The current El Niño is now one of the strongest on record, new data shows, catapulting it into rare “super El Niño” territory. It means a very strong El Niño is ongoing. El Niño influences weather around the globe, so its strength and demise will continue to have an impact on the weather we experience in the coming months. Average conditions during an El Niño winter across the continental US. El Niño has been known to enhance atmospheric river events on the West Coast.

Persons: El, El Niño, Niño, Michelle L’Heureux, ” L’Heureux, L’Heureux, El Niños, Javier Torres, There’s, CNN’s Rachel Ramirez, Brandon Miller Organizations: CNN, El, AFP, Getty Locations: El, California, West Coast, Americas, Chile, Valparaiso, South America, Africa, Australia, Asia

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — It’s still spring in Brazil, but a dangerous heat wave is sweeping across large swathes of the country, forcing Rio de Janeiro’s vendors off the streets due to health alerts and driving up energy demand amid reports of power outages. Most Brazilian states face “great danger” from the heat, according to the National Institute of Meteorology. Actual temperatures dropped slightly on Wednesday, but were forecast to rise again to 40 degrees Celsius (104 F) on Thursday. In Sao Paulo, temperatures reached 37.7 degrees Celsius (99.9 F), just short of a record, according to meteorology company MetSul. In Brazil, El Niño has historically caused droughts in the north and intense rainfall in the south, Ferreira said.

Persons: — It’s, Cariocas, Núbia Beray, “ Cariocas, ” Beray, Danielle Ferreira, ” Ferreira, El Niño, Ferreira, hydrologist Javier Tomasella, ” Tomasella Organizations: RIO DE, Rio de, National Institute of Meteorology, Mato Grosso, Federal University of Rio, National Institute for Space Research Locations: RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Rio’s, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, Sul, Portuguese, Mato, Cyprus, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, South America, Equatorial Pacific, Inmet, El, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia

While freezing temperatures are not uncommon for the time of year, the sudden change is unusual. A few days ago, uncharacteristically warm weather saw parts of northern China post record high temperatures exceeding 30C. Winter this year, however, could be warmer due to a moderate El Nino, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of China's National Climate Centre, told a press conference on Friday. El Nino is a natural climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. But statistics showed that winter temperatures could fluctuate greatly during El Nino, Jia warned.

Persons: REUTER, Tingshu Wang, Doksuri, El, Jia Xiaolong, El Nino, Jia, Ethan Wang, Ryan Woo, Simon Cameron, Moore, Robert Birsel Organizations: Business, Rights, El, China Meteorological Administration, CMA, Authorities, El Nino, Climate Centre, 0.5C, Thomson Locations: China, Rights BEIJING, El Nino, Mongolia, Xinjiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Mohe, Pacific, El

Unusually hot and dry weather in Mato Grosso has caught traders’ attention. October weather in North Mato Grosso BrazilIn Brazil’s southern state of Parana, October rainfall totaled around 350 mm (13.8 inches), the most for any month in at least 25 years. It is unhelpful in this analysis that there have not been many stronger El Ninos in recent years for comparison. Soy yield was 13% below trend that year, but otherwise, soy yields rarely miss in Mato Grosso, making it difficult to detect an impending disaster. In the south, Parana’s rainiest soy-growing seasons have most often coincided with El Ninos, but actual yield outcomes are mixed.

Persons: El Nino, Mato Grosso’s, Mato, La Nina, El, Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: Mato Grosso, Farmers, El Ninos, El Nino, Iowa, La, El, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Primavera, Mato, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Brazil, Mato Grosso, North Mato, Brazil’s, Parana, U.S, Southern, Argentina

MANAUS, Brazil (AP) — Communities dependent on the Amazon rainforest's waterways are stranded without supply of fuel, food or filtered water. These are just the first grim visions of extreme drought sweeping across Brazil’s Amazon. Raimundo Silva do Carmo, 67, makes his living as a fisherman, but these days has been struggling to simply find water. Like most rural residents in Brazil's Amazon, do Carmo typically retrieves water untreated from the biome's abundant waterways. The drought has affected most of the main rivers in the Amazon, the world’s largest basin, which accounts for 20% of the planet’s fresh water.

Persons: Raimundo Silva, Carmo, ” Joaquim Mendes da Silva, ”, Edvaldo de Lira, Ana Paula Cunha, Marcus Suassuna Santos, Brazil’s, Ane Alencar, Alencar, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s, Geraldo Alckmin, Ayan Fleischmann, Fleischmann, Flávia Costa, Fabiano Maisonnave, Eléonore Hughes, Diane Jeantet Organizations: Associated Press, Geological Survey, Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Bolsa, Sustainable Development Institute, National Institute for Space Research, National Institute of, AP Locations: MANAUS, Brazil, Brazil's, Puraquequara, Amazonas state's, Manaus, “, CEMADEN, Amazonas, Parana, Lake Puraquequara, Equatorial, Rio Grande do Sul, Madeira, Bolivia, Porto Velho, Santo Antonio, Negro, Bolsa Familia, Solimoes, Madeira —, Lake Tefe, rocketed, Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro

☆ An El Niño winter is coming: What could that mean for the US?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Mary Gilbert | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which tracks water temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can have rippling effects on weather patterns around the globe. A wetter southern tier and a drier northern tier in an outlook for this winter from the Climate Prediction Center have all the fingerprints of an El Niño winter. El Niño winter patterns are less regular in California, the Southwest and the Northeast. The Northeast doesn’t have a well-defined set of expectations during an El Niño winter. A very strong El Niño during the 2015-2016 winter contributed to the warmest winter on record for the US mainland, according to NOAA.

Persons: it’s, Niño, El Niño, Niña, Harry Lynch Organizations: CNN, El, West, NOAA, Rockies, snowpack, ., Raleigh News, Observer, Tribune, Service, Carolinas Locations: El, Southern, Texas , Louisiana, Mississippi, South, Pacific Northwest, Plains, Midwest, Pacific, California, Raleigh , North Carolina, Texas, East Coast

☆ Opinion: Why we’re seeing so many deadly floods
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jessica Chia | Opinion Adam H. Sobel | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Is this climate change, or just a particularly severe bunch of weather flukes happening in close succession due to the climate’s own natural variability? But climate change acts by loading the dice on many types of weather events. That shouldn’t be comforting; climate change could be playing a larger role than we expect in many of these events. Even without climate change, it would behoove us to catch up on their maintenance, or, where these dams are no longer truly needed, remove them. What we know about climate change and extreme weather should strengthen that motivation; what we don’t know should strengthen it even more.

Persons: Adam H, Sobel, Columbia University’s Lamont, Adam Sobel Danny Goldfield, Daniel, it’s, El Niño, El Niños, El Organizations: Columbia, Fu Foundation School of Engineering, Applied, Twitter, CNN, Humanitarian Affairs, El Locations: Massachusetts, Hong Kong, Greece, Spain, Libya, El, Europe

☆ Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January to March 2024, US forecaster says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 13 (Reuters) - There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. "In August, sea surface temperatures were above average across the equatorial Pacific ocean, with strengthening in the central and east-central Pacific," the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts. On Tuesday, Australia's weather bureau said that El Nino indicators had strengthened and the weather event would likely develop between September and November, bringing hotter and drier conditions to Australia. "Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a 'strong' El Niño have increased to 71%," CPC said.

Persons: Adnan Abidi, El Nino, Chris Hyde, Brijesh Patel, Seher Dareen, Rahul Paswan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Prediction Center, El, El Nino, CPC, World Meteorological Organization, India, Thomson Locations: Ballia District, Uttar Pradesh, India, U.S, Pacific, South Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, Brazil, Asia, Africa, Bengaluru

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 19 million barrels in the NYMEX and ICE U.S. crude (WTI) futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on August 29. Bearish short positions in the premier NYMEX WTI contract had been reduced to just 49 million barrels, down from 136 million. Total commercial crude inventories had fallen into line with the prior ten-year average on August 25 while stocks at Cushing had depleted to almost 30% below the average. Hedge fund managers have been trying to get bullish towards U.S. gas prices, and the inventory surplus inherited from 2022 has been shrinking. Related columns:- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (August 31, 2023)- Prospect of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas prices (August 30, 2023)- Crude oil prices stalled as hedge funds sold (August 29, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Richard Carson, John Kemp, Mike Harrison Organizations: Department of Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, REUTERS, ICE, Cushing, U.S . diesel, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Freeport , Texas, U.S, Cushing, Oklahoma, Brent, Washington, Illinois, Maine

"The price of global rice prices is particularly worrying," Qingfeng Zhang, a senior director from the Asian Development Bank, told CNBC. Other than India, food inflation has been relatively tame in Asia so far this year. Underscoring how higher food prices erode purchasing power, ADB suggested at that time that a 10% rise in domestic food prices in developing Asia would push 64.4 million into poverty, based on the $1.25-a-day poverty line. Moreover, this spike in rice prices is happening amidst widespread lower food prices. watch nowThis means any spikes in food prices will only translate to food inflation toward the end of this year or early 2024.

Persons: Qingfeng Zhang, El Niño, Niño, Erica Tay, Tay, Tay . Rice, Xi Jinping, Morgan Stanley, Maybank Nomura, Sonal Varma, Si Ying Toh, Nomura, Paul Hughes, Hughes, Global's Hughes Organizations: Istock, Asian Development Bank, CNBC, ADB, United Nations, FAO, Tay . Locations: Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, Asia, India, Thailand, China, Myanmar, Cambodia, Tay, U.S, El, Australia, Pacific, Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia

☆ U.S. forecaster sees 95% chance of El Nino prevailing through winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Earlier in the day, Japan's weather bureau forecast the chances of an El Nino through the northern hemisphere winter at 90%. The World Meterological Organization had in May warned that the weather pattern could contribute to rising global temperatures. "In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean," the CPC said. Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a "strong" El Nino event, with roughly two in three odds of temperatures rising by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or more in November-January, it added. It was also expected to bring drier weather across West Africa, South-East Asia and northern South America, and wetter conditions to southern South America in the second half of the year.

Persons: Feisal Omar, El Niño, El Nino, Brijesh Patel, Anjana Anil, Seher Dareen, Bernadette Baum, Mark Potter Organizations: El Nino, REUTERS, Meterological Organization, CPC, El, India, Thomson Locations: Marodijeex, Hargeysa, Somalia's, Somaliland, U.S, Pacific, El, El Nino, Asia, Africa, West Africa, South, East Asia, South America, Bengaluru

In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures. Here is how El Nino will unfold and some of the weather we might expect:WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO? El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months.

Persons: Kim Hong, heatwaves, El, El Nino, Michelle L'Heureux, Tom DiLiberto, DiLiberto, La Nina, Nina, Gloria Dickie, Jake Spring, Angus MacSwan, Sandra Maler Organizations: REUTERS, Nino, Reuters, El Nino, U.S . National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, El, Graphics, el nino, NINO, U.S . West, La, Sao Paulo, Thomson Locations: Cheongju, South Korea, China, United States, Beijing, Rome, Americas, Asia, El, Pacific, Peru, Philippines, Canada, Central, South America, Australia, of Africa, Eastern Pacific, El Nino, London, Sao

On Thursday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now underway. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures. Here is how El Nino will unfold and some of the weather we might expect:WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO? Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months.

Persons: El Nino, Michelle L'Heureux, El, Tom DiLiberto, DiLiberto, La Nina, Nina, Gloria Dickie, Angus MacSwan Organizations: El Nino, U.S . National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, El, Graphics, el nino, NINO, U.S . West, Nino, La, El Ninos, Thomson Locations: Americas, El, Pacific, Peru, Philippines, United States, Canada, Central, South America, Australia, of Africa, Eastern Pacific, El Nino, London

The last time an El Nino was in place, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. DECLARING EL NINOMost experts look to two agencies for confirmation that El Nino has kicked off — NOAA and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The two agencies use different metrics for declaring El Nino, with the Australian definition slightly stricter. On Tuesday, Australia issued their own bulletin, noting a 70% chance of El Nino developing this year. Experts say that a strong El Nino could hit sugar production in India and Thailand, and possibly disrupt the sugarcane harvest in Brazil.

Persons: El Nino, El, John Vizcaino, Arcodia, Gloria Dickie, Seher Dareen, Marcelo Teixeira, Angus MacSwan Organizations: U.S . National Oceanic, El, El Nino, NINO, NOAA, Australia's, Meteorology, REUTERS, El Ninos, Colorado State University, Central Pacific, Central Pacific El Nino, Nino, Thomson Locations: South America, Australia, Asia, Nino, El Nino, Pacific, Magdalena, Colombia, Honda, Central, Hawaii, Central Pacific, El, India, Thailand, Brazil, Vietnam, New York, U.S, Indonesia, Malaysia, London

Records date to 2012, when 15% of corn areas were in at least moderate drought by this same week. Percent of U.S. corn in drought, May versus JulyAround the same date in 2014, 2021 and 2022, moderate drought coverage spanned between 20% and 24% of U.S. corn areas. The central Corn Belt, including Iowa and Illinois, was very wet in May 2013 and mid-month corn planting in those states was very slow, though planting was quicker than normal this year. El Nino never formed in 2012, though it did in late 2014, sticking around throughout 2015 and leading into the 2015-16 super El Nino. Strong U.S. corn yields occur more frequently during El Nino versus La Nina, though El Nino does not guarantee that outcome.

☆ A looming El Niño could prompt a spike in global temperatures, UN agency warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Emma Newburger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An El Niño climate pattern will likely develop later this year, which could exacerbate global warming and break temperature records around the world, forecasters from the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday. The United Nations agency said it cannot yet forecast the strength or duration of the El Niño, but according to its outlook, there is a 60% chance that the El Niño will form between May and July and an 80% chance it will form between July and September. "The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records," Taalas said. An El Niño has the opposite effects on weather and climate patterns than a La Niña. Both weather patterns result from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and are part of an intermittent cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia have endured five failed consecutive rainy seasons since October 2020, with aid groups labeling it 'the worst drought in 40 years'. "Climate change has made this drought exceptional," said Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist with the Kenya Meteorological Department who worked with WWA to tease out climate change's role. Unlike with extreme heat and heavy rainfall, scientists have a harder time pinning down climate change's contribution to droughts around the world. Using computer models and climate observations, the WWA team determined climate change had made the Horn of Africa's long rains from March through May twice as likely to underdeliver, and the short rains from October through December wetter. In addition to less rain falling on the Horn, a warming climate means more water is evaporating from soil and transpiring from plants into the atmosphere.

However, strong suppressive trade winds have not yet allowed this warmth to disperse across the ocean and allow El Nino to gain its footing. The most recent two weeks where the anomaly was as warm or warmer were in July 2015, preceding the 2015-16 El Nino event, and in June 1998, coming off the 1997-98 event. A few forecasters see a possible Super El Nino in 2023. The timing of El Nino is most immediately pressing in the Southern Hemisphere, which begins planting wheat next month. Argentina, often wet during El Nino, is wrapping up a catastrophic crop year due to severe drought.

That mildly increases the chance of a bountiful U.S. corn crop, but a disaster cannot be ruled out. La Nina and its warm-phase cousin El Nino usually peak in strength during the U.S. winter. La Nina is on its third consecutive season, but its departure could be near. Although it varied greatly by state, U.S. farmers on average did not produce a stellar corn crop in 2022 due to drought in the west. Recent years where an early-year La Nina gave way to El Nino by year’s end include 2018, 2009 and 2006.

☆ Amid California's stormy weather, it feels like El Niño and La Niña have switched roles
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Dennis-Romero-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Dennis Romero | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

SAN DIEGO — In a La Niña year, usually associated with dry and warm weather, California has been displaying elements of El Niño: big waves, snowcapped mountains and flooded coastal streets. La Niña this year looks like the El Niño he used to know. "This storm pattern in Southern California is not what we typically expect for a La Niña year," Yu said. "It is more like a winter rainfall pattern we would expect in Southern California during an El Niño year." That's La Niña.

But Argentina is starting in a significant moisture hole given that La Nina, the cool phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is hanging around for a third consecutive season. Monthly precipitation in ArgentinaDrought and heat cut Argentina's 2022 soy and corn yields to four-year lows, but the crops are in worse shape now. GOODBYE LA NINA? The calendar year of 2022 was the driest in Argentina’s grain belt since 2008, which started with a strong La Nina that had begun in mid-2007. Weather will matter for Argentina's soy and corn through at least March given the later development.

☆ U.S. forecaster sees La Niña prevailing during winter
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Dec 8 (Reuters) - La Niña is expected to continue during the northern hemisphere winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions during January to March of 2023, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday. There is about a 71% chance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during February to April of 2023, the forecaster said. The La Niña weather pattern is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Reporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; Editing by Alison WilliamsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Forecasts suggest La Nina may fade into a neutral phase midway through Argentina’s growing season, but it is too early to say with certainty. Current trade wind and ocean temperatures, including those in the Indian Ocean, could support further strengthening of La Nina in the coming weeks. But that should not necessarily heighten concerns since crop impacts are not perfectly correlated with La Nina strength. Rain during the 2008-09 growing season was less than two-thirds of normal, resulting in terrible crop yields, particularly for soybeans. Growing season rains were a third heavier than usual, and soybean yields were very good, but corn was excellent.

Brazil’s potentially record-breaking soybean crop was 34% planted as of Monday, behind last year’s 38%, and progress slowed significantly in No. The southern state was 44% planted as of Monday, the date’s slowest pace in eight years and about 12 points below average. Soybean planting progress in Parana, BrazilBut Parana’s large second corn crop, planted right after soybean harvest, is certainly at risk if the soy season becomes delayed. The Center West state is among Brazil’s most stable soybean producers as it has not harvested a poor soy crop in seven seasons. A third straight season with La Nina, the cool phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, should keep analysts on guard as it tends to dry out Southern Brazil during its growing season.

☆ Fact Check-Study on Greenland warming does not contradict human-driven climate change
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Rather, the study focused on a natural Pacific Ocean weather anomaly and its role in a recent slowdown of Greenland warming. The study’s finding that the slowdown in Greenland warming was driven largely by CP ENSO events doesn’t dispute anthropogenic climate change, Matsumura said. In fact, CP ENSO events have been projected to increase under global warming, Matsumura added, and a frequent occurrence of La Niña would likely accelerate Greenland warming (here), (here). Reuters Fact Check has previously addressed claims that short-term trends in Arctic ice cover undermine the idea that human-driven climate warming is a threat (here). A study by researchers in Japan that explains cooler Greenland summers with less ice melt over the past decade does not undermine the notion of human-driven climate change.

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